Base Naval Scenario I: The "Pre-blockade" 2005-06-11 by: badanov Feb. 3rd An obscure news report from Taipei says an American was abducted in broad daylight and rushed away in a white van. The American consulate has no information regarding the kidnapping, so it is assumed the abductee was not American. Taiwanese law enforcement officials are quoted as saying they are ”on the case.”
Mar 2nd: Chinese news agency reports the PLA has information that Taiwan has secured a deal with the Taiwanese government to provide assistance with nuclear weapons. Chinese government sources regard this information as ”alarming.”
Mar 5th: The PLAAF (Chinese Air Force ) and PLAN (Chinese Navy ) reports it is activating several coastal naval aviation units, including bombers. A mass movement of aircraft is expected from the interior of the mainland to base on the coast nearest to Taiwan. PLAAF and PLAN spokesmen assures reporters this massive deployment of air power is defensive in nature. Additionally, the PLAN announces ships are putting to sea in large numbers as defensive measure.
Mar 6th: A junior senator from a northeastern state says in a morning news talk show that her view is that Taiwan must be united with China and if she decides to run that will be a plank on her platform for the 2008 presidential election. Later that day a number of other senators hold a press conference stating their support for a united China.
Mar 8th: The PLAN announces a ”pre-blockade deployment of naval vessels” near Taiwan's two main sea ports. The spokeswoman says the deployment is only to monitor Taiwanese shipping movements. Four groups in all, each with four ships: One destroyer, one missile frigate, one missile boat and one ELINT ship. Within hours the ships are on station.
A White House spokesman says that it views the extra naval and air activities as ”troubling”, and he reveals that the president regards this ”pre-blockade|” naval movement is as close to an act of war as ever has been from the Chinese government. A Chinese embassy official dismisses the White House statement as “war-mongering” and ”fear mongering” reiterating PLAN only wants to monitor commercial shipping in and out of Taiwan for materials which cab be used against the Chinese mainland.
Mar 9th: An ABC special report states that a large group of airborne soldiers have been placed on alert for rapid deployment. Speculation is at least a brigade is preparing to deploy. Pentagon and White House officials refuse comment.
You are an American commander in charge of the four CVBGs. President Bush flies to Honolulu to meet with you before you go by air to your flagship. He looks you dead in the eye and says: ”Make 'em back down without starting a shooting war.” What are your plans? And what do you think the Chinese are trying to do? In this base scenario, the junior senator, will play a role later on, but not in this case. -----------------------------------------COMMENTS---------------------------------------- |