Last fall, rebel media repeatedly made much of Ukrainian preparations for new attacks, and at that time rebels were trying to expand their territorial holdings by small scale attacks. Every day came new warnings, weekly warnings of a threatened attack. Instead, what wound up happening was the rebels made small scale defensive, line shortening operations. And at a heavy cost in blood.

Since early June, the Donetsk ministry of defense has been making note of the increase of armor and rocket artillery units filtering into western Donetsk. Artillery fires from both sides have not increased, but since early June the use of "prohibited" weapons (guns with bore 100mm or larger) by both sides are on the increase. Even the rebels are starting to use 122mm rocket artillery in counterbattery strikes.

The Ukrainians could attack, but I have doubt whether they can make large, rapid investments of their enemies. These attacks this time are much more likely to be the grinding, slow moving attacks that will gain less than 10 kilometers per thrust, and will likely involve defending from counterattacks.

As I have said over and over again, neither side in this conflict is capable of anything much more than trench warfare.


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