Very little of this will be a surprise to anyone who has been awake since 9-11. As has been shown in a past post, the Chinese could possibly stage a confrontation to test Bush by 2006. We believe that such a confrontation, if the Chinese “win” it, will hurt the right politically in the 2006 elections and will set the stage for victory by the left in the U.S. in 2008.

That little bit of speculation is why we posited the idea that the PLAN, the Chinese Navy, could try a partial build-up to test the response of the US Navy in the event of a partial blockade of Taiwan. It would also give the Chinese all the excuse they need to move up massive amount of air power to coastal bases in preparation to a 2008 invasion, should their political plans in the US fall through in 2008.

The scenario rests on two assumptions. The first is the the ChiComs could use a confrontation to embarrass Bush into backing down, inasmuch as this scenario may not win them Taiwan, but the loss in the 2006 elections could conceivably pave the way for a government far less willing to confront the Chinese over Taiwan in 2008.

The Chinese know that the best way to take over Taiwan is not through direct military confrontation but through a weak, ( likely a leftist ) government's willingness to allow China to have their way.

The second assumption, far more obvious, is that even if the PLAN is forced to back down either through US Navy maneuvers or through diplomatic means,will have the means passed that point to plan and practice a full scale invasion by 2009, assuming a weaker US government is in place.

And this is the point in which the a planned acquisition of Russian Kilo diesel attack guided missile subs come into play. These low-tech ships have enough firepower to prove a major impediment to US Navy intervention. With just four of those boats going into service by 2008 , a row of them can provide a potent “battle line”:the US Navy will have to deal with.

The other use of the subs is, in the event of a military confrontation, could be to blockade the US west coast. Just one sunk freighter is all the PLAN needs to knock the US off its balance. The potential political and economic turmoil could be all the PLAN needs to take control of the seas around Taiwan to force them to come to terms.

And its only a six hour boat ride from the Chinese eastern shores to Taiwan, all they need.


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