Drug War Could Define Mexican Presidential Politics
2010-12-26
Posted by: badanov
by Chris Covert
Mexican national election for president are almost 18 months away now, yet political maneuvering of the three major national political parties, Partido Accion National (PAN), Partido Revolucion Institucional (PRI), and Partido Revolucionario Democratica, two have already set forth their national leadership, and the three major parties have started to define politics for the upcoming campaign.
With all the maneuvering taking place, events in the state of Michoacan threaten to define Mexican national politics and the issues even before the end of the presidential primaries.
President Felipe Calderon is suffering dissent outside as well as from within his own party, PAN. Already receiving criticism about how he is handling the war on drug cartels, an internal snub took place only weeks ago when Gustavo Madero Munoz, 55, was elected as PAN national president. Among the other two candidates running against Madero was Margarita Zavala, Calderon's wife of 17 years.
None of the contenders were strangers to Mexican politics. Zavala was federal deputy in the 59th Congress, and has been a high profile and active presence in Calderon's government, while Madero became senate president in 2008 after having served as senator since 2006, replacing Santiago Creel, a Calderon rival in the 2006 presidential primaries.
Creel, like Madero, is a member of the Creel-Terrazas family, one of Mexico's oldest and wealthiest family, and is apparently planning a run in 2012 for president.
PAN's archrival PRI is coming off of a very successful four year string of elections and strengthening their hold on state governments. Beatriz Parades is leaving her post as PRI president and ending her term with a stunning defeat of PAN in state elections this past summer. Parades has stated in the past her desire to run for president in 2012, but she is currently not a front runner in that contest.
Ruben Moreira, 44, is expected to walk in as PRI's new national leader. Moreira is a teacher by trade and is Coahuila's governor, a post which will be up for special election in January should he be confirmed as PRI president. The issue is expected to be resolved January, 2011.
Intense political problems have emerged for Calderon's presidency from his handling of the La Familia situation in Michoacan.
Jesus Ortega, president of the PRD, has charged the federal government with failing to use a congruent program of drug prosecutions in Michoacan as with other Mexican states.
"I have no doubt about it: I think the government is guilty of bias in its strategy for prosecuting crime in some states such as Tamaulipas, Durango, Sinaloa, Morelos, Nayarit or looks the other way," Ortega is quoted as saying in a recent Milenio article.
And Michoacan has been a nightmare so far for Calderon.
The complicating factor is the war of words between PRD held Michoacan based La Familia drug cartel and the Mexican federal government, which is threatening to turn into a bloody battle.
One of the very next acts of the federal government after La Familia announced they wanted the federal government to leave Michoacan alone so La Familia can conduct their business, was the early December raid by Mexican Federal agents which killed La Familia leader Nazario Moreno Gonzalez, alias El Chayo This was an unprecedented operation in scope and size, both geographically and in blood which killed five agents, spanned roughly 5,000 square kilometers and lasted 36 hours.
Because of that operation La Familia warned it is planning a guerrilla war against the federal government if federal security forces do not leave Michoacan. Michoacan is Calderon's home state. Even his sister, Maria Luisa, is planning to run for a minor state post in 2011. While a failure to take control of Michoacan may represent a failure for Calderon, it could also be seen as a failure of PAN. The Mexican drug war may help to explain the snub Calderon suffered at the hands of his own national party when Madero took the reins of PAN.
He just can't afford to be seen as weak.
But Michoacan also stands as a warning to Calderon's political rivals, PRI and PRD, especially in the PRD.
Carlos Jimenez Macias, spokesman for the PRI caucus in the senate has charged the Calderon administration of starting a smear capaign against PRD and the PRI. In remarks published in the Mexican daily Milenio, he said the federal campaign against the PRI and PRD has already begun.
Ortega's and Jiminez's remarks may seem to speak of PRD and PRI's fear that PAN will take political advantage of a potential political vacuum in Michoacan.
Two weeks ago, Julius Cesar Godoy, a member of the Mexican national legislature representing Michoacan was impeached for money laundering and for having ties with organized crime,. His brother, Leonel Godoy, governor of Michaocan has made remarks to the national press attempting to distance himself from his brother. The large Policia Federal operation was begun at roughly the same time as the impeachment.
While Governor Godoy has been very clear there is no nexus between himself and La Familia, it is hard to imagine Godoy not being aware of his brother's relations with regard to La Familia.
Even so, the federal government is making a stand in Michoacan. Federal presence in Michoacan ends when crime rates come down. And the forces are deployed there to back up its intentions.