Report: Mexican Army lethality increased 465 percent subject logo: MEXICO
2011-11-06
Posted by: badanov

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By Chris Covert


A report released by a Mexican university legal research team claims that the Mexican Army in its counternarcotics operations has increased its lethality by at least 465 percent.

The report was commissioned by Universidad Nacional Automonma Mexico (UNAM) -- an institution with well known and defined leftist links -- and compiled by its Instituto de Investigaciones Juridicas using statistics provided by both the Mexican Secretaria de Defensa Nacional (SEDENA), the Mexican Army agency and by La Prensa publication.

The report has numerous problems in its methodology and glaring problems in its underlying assumptions.

For example, in Mexican news reports, researchers claim that an average use of force ratio should balance the numbers of dead to wounded as a direct one to one ratio. The report fails to detail, however, why diverging from such a ratio may be explained by better gunnery, for example rather than excessive use of force.

Other problems include the contention in the report that SEDENA and Secretaria de Marina (SEMAR), the agency for Mexican Naval Infantry forces, are organized and trained for use in war, not as police forces.

Which is funny, considering the tremendous constraints placed on SEDENA and SEMAR forces such as disallowing independent counternarcotics operations outside the legal system. In other words in its use in the drug war, Mexico's military has been used as a handmaiden of the legal system, rather than a force using the "logic of war", as the report puts it, deploying troops against the citizenry.

According to Mexican news reports of the UNAM report, the report was completed in September and was sparked by the debate on the new La Ley de Seguiridad Nacional, or National Security Law, which news reports said give Mexican military organizations police powers.

That idea that the new national security law would give military agencies police power is essentially incorrect as it would give Mexican military organizations extraordinary powers, albeit power that no police institute currently has. The law would also permit martial law in small geographic entities such as municipalities, power that police local state or national do not have.

The report states at the outset that violent crime increased tremendously since 2008, the second year of President Felipe Calderon Hinojosa's administration. Bank robberies rose 90 percent, extortion rose 100 percent, carjackings increased 108 percent and kidnapping increased 188 percent, according to the report.

The ratio of intentional homicides in Mexico more than doubled during that same period going from 7.9 per 100,000 population to 17.9 per 100,000 population.

The report also notes that the majority of violent crimes are concentrated in 12 out of 32 political entities in Mexico including Chihuahua, Baja California, Durango, Sinaloa, Nuevo Leon, Tamaulipas, Guerrero, Michoacan, Nayarit and Morelos, Four of those states border the US.

The report writers admit in the text that there is a statistical correlation between the presence of Mexican military forces in an area and violent deaths, although the report writers disingenuously failed to note whether those increases in deaths and crime are in confrontations with the military or because of greater impunity by organized crime.

It goes on to hint that a "causal link" may exist between the presence of military forces and violent crime, but then disassociates that contention by admitting a probable causal relationship between the presence of organized crime gangs and increases in violent crime.

Tables reproduced in this article show an increase of not only the number of gun battles between Mexican security forces and criminal gangs, but also increases in the kill ratio overall.

Mexican Marines lead all security forces with almost 35 to one kill ratio while the Policia Federal is dead last with 1.8 kill ratio.

Following ther logic of the report writers Polica Federal agents are the closest to the "acceptable" lethality ratio, while Mexican marines exceed what is likely an arbitrary standard by a factor of almost 17.

But army lethality ratios are the issue here and the math is that the Mexican Army has increased its lethality by 465 percent over three years.

However the report fails to take into account in its text the increase in the number of army troops deployed to northern states since the start of 2011. The number of confrontations as well as the lethality ratio is bound to increase, whether or not the army is given "police powers".

Data Tables











Number of Confrontations by Year by Agency
2008
Policia FederalArmyMarinesPF and ArmyPF and MarinesArmy and MarinesPF Army and Marines
1316010000
2009
Policia FederalArmyMarinesPF and ArmyPF and MarinesArmy and MarinesPF Army and Marines
131419002
2010
Policia FederalArmyMarinesPF and ArmyPF and MarinesArmy and MarinesPF Army and Marines
107786150
2011 (Thru May, 2011)
Policia FederalArmyMarinesPF and ArmyPF and MarinesArmy and MarinesPF Army and Marines
22651041









Killed and Wounded by Agency (Since 2008 Thru May, 2011)
AgencyKilledWounded
Army44110
Marines218
Policia Federal6066
Local Police1015
Civilian Combatants756103
Civilian Innocents4492






Ratio of Criminal Element Killed and Wounded per security element, by Agency (Since 2008 Thru May, 2011)
AgencyKilledWounded
Army13.89.2
Marines34.517.3
Policia Federal1.42.6
PF and Army44.8






Killed and Wounded in battles with the army -- lethality ratios (Since 2008 Thru May, 2011) (Press accounts)
Data Class2008200920102011 (Thru May, 2011)
Civilian Dead4495327170
Civilian Wounded1324402
Ratio3.383.9648.1885






Killed and Wounded in battles with the army -- lethality ratios (Since 2008 Thru May, 2011) (SEDENA data)
Data Class2008200920102011 (Thru May, 2011)
Civilian Dead682117341585
Civilian Wounded267110848
Ratio2.622.976.812.19