Donbas militias prepare for Ukrainian offensive
2014-10-25
Posted by: badanov
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By Chris Covert
Rantburg.com
Donetsk militia leaders and Russian journalists continue to claim that the Ukrainian military are preparing to mount an offensive in western Donetsk, accoriding to various reports.
A video released Thursday by the former Donetsk Minister of Defense, GRU Colonel Igor Girkin warned that an increase in the tempo of ground and artillery attacks and a massing of troops to the immediate west of Donetsk city presages a renewed offensive.
The combatants in the six month old war are supposed to be operating under a truce agreed to last month, in which both sides are required to withdraw their forces and heavy weapons. Up until a few days ago, both sides appeared to be doing just that.
However, direct and artillery attacks have taken place in a number of places in western Donetsk and north Lugansk.
According to the summaries of the main talking points, Ukrainian forces are massing west of Mariupol and Donetsk, and forces have been seen massing near Debalstevo, northeast of Donetsk city. Girkin said an increase of artillery strikes, including the use of tactical ballistic missiles, and increased activity by reconnaissance groups are all hallmarks of a pending Ukrainian offensive.
According to the video summary, the probable date of the offensive is unknown, but Donetsk city is the likely target. Girkin goes on to explain that the Ukrainian military could attempt another pincer operation similar to the one early last August, which was intended to isolate Donetsk oblast (province) from its sister oblast, Lugansk. In that operation Ukrainian forces drove due west into the Ilovaisk region and attempted to link up with another force then operating at Krasnii Luch further north.
After two weeks of heavy fighting and a last minute withdrawal of a critical Ukrainian military formation, the operation failed. Both sides agree losses for the Ukrainian side were significant. The Ukrainian military claims close to 900 killed, but Donetsk militias claim more than 2,000 dead.
The claim that the truce would be ended with a Ukrainian military offensive has been a part of the pro Russian militia rumor mill, albeit with definitive proof of several formations arriving near the western line of contact in Donetsk. A report by a blogger, Voenkor said that the Ukrainian military has purchased and is distributing "hundreds of tons of aviation kerosene" to an airfield near Mirgorod in Poltava oblast.
Another report by Voenkor told of an artillery attack near Mariupol which killed "dozens" of militia, and several attacks inside of Mariupol itself.
Active militia field commander Alexey Mozgovoy of the "Ghost Brigade" was quoted in online sources as saying that Ukrainian troop movements have been spotted near Izium and Artyomovsk in the north. Debaltsevo was said to be a jumping off point for Ukrainian offensive operations.
A report by Russian blogger Anatoly Nesmiyan, known as blogger El Murid, said that Ukrainian mobile troops, described as "an endless stream... of tanks, armored vehicles, artillery and trucks with infantry and ammunition" have been flowing into the settlement known as Marinka Kurakhovo west of Donetsk city under the cover of darkness. Nesmiyan also wrote that Ukrainian troops near the line of contact in western Donetsk city have been withdrawn temporarily to refit with winter clothing.
Not all Russian media believe in a pending Ukrainian offensive.
According to Victor Pastushenko, a writer at Russia Today (Russkaya Sevodnya), other markers seem to indicate that part of the Ukrainian Army's firepower likely to be used in offensive operations is being positioned far beyond their range, such as a BM-21 rocket artillery battery, which had been emplaced at Mount Karachun near Slavyonsk, about 40 kilometers (24 miles) from the Donetsk line of contact. Another BM-21 unit was similarly deployed far beyond its range. As an aside, the redeployment of the rocket artillery units is in accordance with the Minsk agreement, which was supposed to end most of the conflict.
Also according to Pastushenko, owing to the Ukrainian disaster in Ilovaisk the Ukrainian military may not have much stomach for a renewed fight. The militias they faced last summer are no longer raw recruits but hardened fighters, which may give Ukrainian military forces all they want.
Another factor against a renewed offensive is the weather. At the moment the weather in Ukraina is holding at mild and dry, and is expected to remain so for at least a week. Fall rains render military operations everywhere but on paved roads nearly impossible, and winter is a requirement for ground operations as the ground hardens.
Fighting in Donetsk
Militias say that Ukrainian forces attempting to relieve forces at the Donetsk airport were driven back in two separate attacks, according to data supplied by the pro Russian Voice of Sevastopol.
A Ukrainian relief force coming from the north near Trudovskikh was stopped, although that operation was heavily supported with Ukrainian artillery from Peski and Avdeyevka.
Another failed Ukrainian relief mission took place near Petrovka.
Ukrainian artillery attacks were recorded coming from Gorlovka aimed at the town of Mayorka.
Chris Covert writes about foreign military issues for Rantburg.com. He can be reached at grurkka@gmail.com
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