As Ukraina searches for a cause for war, militias prepare for attack
2014-10-26
Posted by: badanov
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By Chris Covert
Rantburg.com
For weeks the pro Russian militias, their leaders and Russian military journalists have been warning about a renewed military offensive by Ukrainian forces, supposedly withdrawn west and north from Dontesk and Lugansk oblasts (provinces). Up until last Friday the warnings were general in nature, that the Ukrainian military was going to resume its war on the Don basin against Russian supplied and trained militias, but despite those repeated warnings in the midst of a ceasefire, no attack has materialized.
Friday, however, the signs were much clearer of an impending attack. Many of the reasons are shrouded in the need for military secrecy of both the militias and the Ukrainian military. As of early Sunday morning, it was speculated that the attack would resume during the parliamentary election taking place now as you read this. But as of the publication of this story, no attack has taken place.
British videographer and journalist Graham Phillips for the last ten days has been making a point of recording marriages between militia members and local girls in Donetsk at civil registry offices. Videos include the militia members, still donning field gear including their rifles slung down, their friends similarly armed and the girls, many of them dressed in white wedding gowns, carrying flowers and a happy smile. A theme in the videos includes a tiny bit of good-natured cutting up among the participants including nervous jokes uttered by the groom and his friends, and the nervous laughter of the bride.
The subtext of the videos is clear: despite this nascent conflict, the abject misery of which has in some cases stripped towns of 90 percent of their residents, love, life and families can be had.
But for the leadership of Donetsk and Lugansk, the stakes in the war could not be more stark between life and death.
Saturday, a news brief appeared in the online pro Ukrainian news outlet korrespondent.net, which details how Ukraina's security service, the SBU, was planning to locate and round up militia leaders in Donetsk and Lugansk, to be prosecuted for terrorism. In fact, since the start the Ukrainian government and its press has dubbed their operation the ATO, after its English based acronym Anti Terrorist Operation.
But accompanying the story was a photograph which showed the prime minister of Donetsk, Aleksandr Zakharchenko exiting a building with his heavily armed security detail. Another subtext, it appears Ukrainian forces will be deployed to attack so that they can arrest, and presumably put of trial leaders such as Zakharcheno.
In fact in the terms of the ceasefire, one of the requirements is for the disbanding of illegally armed groups, meaning the militias. No militia group since the start of the September 5th ceasefire, or its September 19th protocol, have disarmed or disbanded, and it appears none of them intend to.
October 28th to October 30th
Up until Sunday morning it was commonly reported that the Ukrainian militaty would resume its war on election day, October 26th, or the day after. Several problems which have been in existance for at least two weeks threaten that bit of speculation.
Primary is the weather. Fall rains render military operations by military vehicles impossible, except in areas where paved roads can be used. Since this is mainly an infantry and artillery war, the Ukrainian militay leadership would be foolish to attempt mobile operations until the ground can be dried and hardened, usually mid November.
Second is the parliamentary election currently taking place. The United States is heavily funding Ukraina's war against Russian supported militias with non lethal aid, mostly uniforms and MREs. A military attack against rebel forces in Lugansk and Donetsk would be "bad optics" as Washington D.C. insiders call potential public relations problems. A military operation in the middle of, or directly following a parliamentary election would look terrible even to supporters of the ruling party headed by Piotr Poroshenko, to say nothing of the criticism-sensitive Ukrainian supporters within the administration of US president Barak Obama.
Third is the ongoing negotiations between Russia and Ukraina over Russian supplied natural gas. Currently Ukraina is cut off from Russian natural gas over two issues: price and previously acquired debt. Russian president Vladimir Putin has been driving a hard bargain for price and is insisting on partial payment up front for gas supplies, as well as repayment of at least part of the debt Ukraina has run up with Russia.
For Russia's part, their problem at the moment is the collapsing Russian ruble, brought on by US and European Union sanctions currently limited to Russian oligarchs. Apparently capital is leaving Russia, and that movement is creating a panic in Russian markets. Russian needs hard exchange to shore up its own currency.
Negotiations on the economic issues have been ongoing since the Milan meeting two weeks ago, and if you believe Poroshenko, a deal may be reached in Brussels next Wednesday, October 29th.
It is unclear if Ukrainian operations would begin on or after that date, directly after an economic deal crucial to Ukraina would be struck. Attacking even an adversary just after an agreement would be bad optics, and in the worst case could spark another collapsed Ukrainian government.
Ukrainian force deployment
Even Ukrainian journalists have admitted that last summer was a military disaster for the Ukrainian military, especially in Ilovaisk, where the Ukrainians lost between 900 and 2,000 dead, depending on the source. The September truce has allowed the Ukrainian military to withdraw its forces for rest and refit, leaving small forces behind in some critical regions.
According to Russian military analyst Alexander Zapolskisa, at the start of hostilities last spring, Ukraina had a total of 18 combat brigades at its disposal:
Armor: The 1st and 17th Tank Brigades.
Mechanized Rifle brigades: The 24th, 28th, 30th, 51st, 72nd, 92nd, 93th and 128th Mechanized Rifle Brigades.
Airborne/Air Assault brigades: The 25th, 79th, 80th and 95th Airborne Brigades.
Artillery Brigades: The 11th, 26th and 55th Artillery Brigades and one unidentified rocket artillery unit.
Independent Regiments: The 80th Airmobile, 15th, 27th and 107th Independent Regiments.
Independent Artillery Regiments: The 2nd, 3rd and 8th Independent Artillery Regiments.
According to Zapolskisa, owing to heavy losses at the hands of the militias, the Ukrainian Army can now deploy a total of nine mechanized battalion combat groups. Those units are comprised of four mechanized rifle companies, one recon company and one sniper company. This is "book strength", or what those groupings are supposed to have. According to the analyst, the number totals about 2,000 per unit. None of those groups have integrated tank units, which are apparently deployed as independent units.
Much of the cadres of those units are battle hardened veterans, so necessarily much of the rank and file are fillers, untrained troopers.
Even so, some of the combat brigades listed have been disbanded and then reconstituted in the Ukrainian rear and at a far less strength. With the heavy losses during last August's battle, Ukrainians are hard pressed to bring new armor to the fight. According to Zapolskisa, much of the 1st and 17th Armor Brigades for all intents and purposes have been disbanded, their tank units scattered among other weaker formations as "line stiffeners".
The territorial defense battalions, according to Zapolskisa, are formerly interior troops deployed in civilian vehicles after an area has been secured, of which a total of 32 units were available to Ukrainian military leaders last spring. Within those units are "430 soldiers (60 officers, 370 enlisted men). A total of 130 riflemen in each of the companies."
Militias call these groups "punishers", for their basic mission is to enter a secure area and detain leaders of the resistance.
In fact, many of those units have been deployed as combat units without heavy weapons or military vehicles. It should be noted that many of the militias for the rebels' side also move about and deploy in civilian, and in some cases, personal vehicles.
To date, according to Zapolskisa, a total of 18 territorial defense battalions are left, the rest having been disbanded due to heavy losses or in at least two cases to mutiny. Those territorial defense battalions include several iterations of the "Azov", "Dnepr", Right Sector" and "Donbass" territorial defense battalions, units with earned reputations among their militia opponents as killers with badges.
A total of 6,400 effectives are available for any upcoming operations, according to Zapolskisa; essentially territorial defense battalions are Ukrainian light infantry. Many of those units are staffed with foreign volunteers.
Additionally, a total of five national guard battalions are on the books for the Ukrainians, with a "book strength" of 490 personnel. The national guard units vary very little with the territorial defense battalions, except some have received light armored vehicles, such as the BRDM-2 scout car or the BTR-70 armored personnel carrier.
According to Zapolskisa, national guardsmen total 2,450 personnel, and as many as 50 light armored vehicles.
In all, including other ad hoc or volunteer formations, a total of 38,250 personnel are available for the upcoming offensive. Also 220 tanks, 600 light armored all kinds (working or not), and up to 350 tubes and artillery launchers are available. The Ukrainian military boasts 60,000 personnel total, but according to Zapolskisa the totals are in doubt.
Where to strike?
No one on the rebels' side knows where the Ukrainian military will strike. At the moment, Ukrainian military units have been stubbornly hanging on at the Donetsk airport and in Schastye, about 20 kilometers north of Lugansk. Both of these points have been under near constant combat operations.
Directly following the signing of the September 19th Minsk Ceasefire agreement, and up until last week, rebel units have been trying to eject Ukrainian forces holding a small area of the airport, but only to heavy losses and repeated failure. Part of the problem for the militias is an ammunition shortage, and a lack of both personnel and heavy vehicles. The main issue is that the Ukrainians hold two separate marshaling areas, to the southwest in Peski and to the northeast at Avdeyevka, from which relief forces for the airport are shifted.
Both localities have been attacked by rebel militias as a means of cutting off support for Ukrainians inside the airport, but to no avail.
At Schastye, battles to gain control of the river crossing of the North Donetsk River south of the town have also failed. Last week rebel militias attempted to surround the town, but failed.
The rest of the frontage, 90 percent according to some Russian sources, has been stable with little to no artillery fire or active combat operations. The question on the minds of rebel leaders is: where will the Ukrainians strike?
The answer centers around the strategy the Ukrainians attempted last summer in their operations to surround Donetsk city and cut it off from Lugansk. To that purpose Ukrainian positions in Schastye makes sense, while holding the airport does not.
Last summer, Ukrainian military units struck southeast of Donetsk city driving east to Ilovaisk, while a separate force drove south from an area just west of Schastye, attempting to link up.
Ukrainians say that the decision of one territorial defense commander not to follow on the Ilovaisk operation doomed the operation to failure and eventual disaster.
The question is now, with the Russians far less willing to supply ammunition to the rebels, will a repeat of the operation succeed.
If the Ukrainians strike in the locations they did before, it would appear at least the Ukrainians thinks they will succeed.
Chris Covert writes about foreign military issues for Rantburg.com. He can be reached at grurkka@gmail.com
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