Donbas militias total 27K effectives, including Rooshuns
2014-11-04
Posted by: badanov
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By Chris Covert
Rantburg.com
As results of the presidential and parliamentary elections in Donetsk and Lugansk are digested worldwide, both sides in this six month old conflict prepare and assess forces available for war, according to Russian and English language news accounts.
Taunting Ukrainian politicians and supporters, a top official of the Donetsk Central Election Commission (CEC), Vladislav Gordeyev -- holding a document presumably certifying election results -- said in a press conference: "The elections were legitimate and went without essential violations which could have influenced the results. Now, we have a legitimate government, Donbas is no longer part of Ukraine whether someone likes it or not."
Ukrainian officials, as well as American officials and other European officials have decried the November 2nd election as illegal under the September Ceasefire, which mandated elections for "Special Status" for the two republics of the Donbas area, Lugansk and Donetsk.
Part of that agreement also said that the Ukrainian parliament, the Verkhovna Rada must pass a law outlining the conditions for special status, which it did only a week after the signing of the Minsk agreement.
But Donetsk and Lugansk officials have denounced the new law, saying that the special status law was not specific to their region and was limited to three years, and was therefore invalid.
To date only the Russian Federation has recognized the legitimacy of the vote, with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov urging both Ukraina and the European Union to do the same. A good deal of deception has been fostered by Russian press sympathetic to the Donbas rebels with one Russian news outlet, according to a Euro Maindan press center website, saying that an Organization For Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) observer had remarked while near a polling station in Donetsk city that he saw no election violations.
According to pro Ukrainian press, no OSCE observers have been sent to Donetsk or elsewhere, only truce monitoring groups. So far, no announcement has been posted to the European Parliament website concerning anything about the Donetsk and Lugansk elections.
Election Results
According to an English language Russian Today website, acting prime minister of Donetsk, Alexei Zakharchenko and Igor Plotnitsky of Lugansk have won the presidency of their respective countries by wide margins, and concomitantly, their associated political organizations have won big as well.
According to a CEC official, Roman Lyagin, Zakharchenko gained 765,340 votes, while Aleksandr Kofman got 111,024 votes, and Yury Sivokonenko received 93,280.
Zakharchenko's Donetsk Republic Party gained 662,725 votes, while the Svobodniy Donbass Party gained 306,892 votes.
In Lugansk, Plotnitsky's Peace to Lugansk Region party received 69.42 percent of votes, while the Lugansk Economic Union gained 22 percent.
Troop Movements in Novorossiya
The past three days have been nervous ones for the Ukrainian military stationed at or near the line of contact. Repeated charges by the European Maidan press have been that the Russians have been sending large number of troops to both Lugansk and Donetsk cities, a charge which has turned out to be true.
However, the Russian troops have been sent west to participate in parades observing "Russian March", an annual protest by Russian nationalist political groups. As pro Russian military blogger and journalist Boris Rozhin has stated, almost no one attends those celebrations or parades.
Pro Ukrainian military blogger Roman Burko claims that Russian troops are filtering into both Lugansk and Donetsk, including localities sch as Makeevka (near Donetsk city), Snezhnoye , and Antratsyt (between Lugansk and Donetsk oblast).
Burko also claims that Russian rocket artillery units have been observed entering Donetsk city, including the 300mm BM-30 Smerch MRL. Burko also said that Ukrainian military units have intercepted radio "surprise operability checks" between Donbas rebel units, as well as presumably, Russian tactical units. Such communications checks are in fact very common among nearly every military organization on the planet. Such checks are means to test and time communications between headquarter units and their subordinate units in the event of attack.
A subsequent report by Burko said that another unit comprising the 240mm BM-27 "Urugan" rocket artillery launcher was seen in Gorlovka, which is about 20 kilometers northeast of Donetsk city.
Burko also identified four strategic directions at which Donbas militias and Russian troops have been massing, and has offered a possible scenario for an attack on Ukrainian forces.
Southwest Direction
Group A (40 kilometers northeast of Mariupol): Forces deployed along the line Olenivka-Dokuchajevsk-Volnovakha. According to Burko, this group's main mission is to cut off supply lines of Ukrainian forces deployed or operating near Starohnativka, then, as a subsidiary operation, link up with Groups B and C near Volnovakha further west and then attack to the northeast along the Highway T0509. Eventually the combined group will link up with Group E to encircle Ukrainian forces operating near Kostiantynivka and Novomykhailivka, which are about 18 kilometers southwest of Volnovakha.
Group B: Forces deployed along the line Komsomolske-Starohnativka-Donskoye. This group is supposed to split Ukrainian forces at Volnovakha before linking up with Groups A and C.
Group C: Forces deployed along with line Telmanove-Hranytne-Donskoye. This group is tasked with supporting Group B as it drives west, and then supporting the attack west of Volnovakha.
Group D: (Ten kilometers northeast of Mariupol) Forces deployed along with line Krasnoarmiiske-Talakivka-Volodarske-Manhush. According to Burko, this group is supposed to encircle Mariupol with a single arm from the northeast and gain control of Highway E58, the main and southernmost highway between Mariupol and the Russian border.
Group E: The northernmost group of the southwest direction deployed along with line Donetsk-Marinka-Kurahove. This group is tasked with supporting the flank of Group A as it advances west towards Kostiantynivka and Novomykhailivka.
Northwest Direction
Group F: (In Donetsk city proper) Deployed along the line Spartak-Avdiivka-Ocheretyne. This group's task to to take the Donetsk airport. As simple as it sounds, this group's start position is astride two localities, Sparktak and Avdeevka which either have Ukrainian troops deployed or are used as a marshaling point for Ukrainian forces defending the airport.
Groups G1, G2 and H: (Northeast of Donetsk city) G1 deployed along the line Gorlovka-Svotlodarsk-Artemivsk. G2 deployed along the line Pervomaisk-Popasna-Artemivsk. H deployed along the line Gorlovka-Dzerzhynsk-Kostiantynovka. The main task for this group is to cut off supply lines for Ukrainian forces at Debaltsevo, and prepare for a subsequent operation towards Kramatorsk and Slovyansk, further north.
North Direction
Group I: (West of Schastye) Forces deployed along the line Bryanka-Pervomaisk-Lysychansk. This group is supposed to support an attack on Schastye which is just ten kilometers northwest of Lugansk city, and a position the Ukrainian force have held since late August. Since that time, Donbas rebels have made repeated attempts to either take the city off the march, or to at least surround the city. The operation for the Donbas rebels is hard probably because Schastye is behind the Northern Donetskaya River line. It is likely that rebel forces do not have sufficient modern combat engineering equipment, let alone training to force a river crossing. The hard winter in southern Ukraina, which has in the past been known to freeze rivers to such an extent they can support armor vehicles, could change all that.
Northeast Direction
Group deployed near Schastye: As indicated above, this group is tasked with eliminating the Ukrainian presence at the river crossing at Schastye.
This above description, according to Burko, was based on the speculation that Donbas rebel troops would attack directly after the conclusion of the election, or November 3rd.
According to Ukrainian military journalist Dmitry Tymchuk, Donbas rebels boast a total of 27,000 effectives, among them 15,000 Russian mercenaries and volunteers, and 12,000 rebels.
Heavy equipment the Donbas rebels have deployed, according to Tymchuk, includes 115 main battle tanks, 280 armored vehicles, 100 pieces of artillery, including tube howitzers and rocket artillery, and 500 trucks and tractors.
Chris Covert writes about foreign military issues for Rantburg.com. He can be reached at grurkka@gmail.com
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