On the eve of peace talks, Russia signals a compromise
2014-12-09
Posted by: badanov
By Chris Covert
Rantburg.com
On the eve of renewed peace talks in Minsk, news from Russia indicates that Russian president Vladimir Putin is seeking a settlement in the eight month long war in southeastern Ukraine, according to Russian language press accounts.
According to a news item posted on the Euromaidan website, Russia is signalling its willingness to accept autonomy for the two breakaway oblasts (provinces) Lugansk and Donetsk, instead of driving for a settlement which allows the two oblasts to function as independent states.
The source of the putative compromise is unclear. Part of the temporary items in the September 5th Ceasefire included autonomy for the two republic, and in line with the agreement the Ukrainian parliament did pass a law granting autonomy, which was limited to just a few months.
Just last month both republics held elections for parliament and president, an action that Ukraine and its allies decried as illegal under the ceasefire, and Donetsk has been floating the idea of its own currency. Both are seen as sure signs that Donetsk is seeking to become independent.
However, officials in Luganks on their own have signaled their willingness to engage in the new talks scheduled to open today in Minsk, and have mostly stopped fighting within their own borders. Officials in Donetsk, dealing with their own problems with regard to the ceasefire have insisted on delaying talks to December 12th, and have been generally less than enthusiastic in settling issues with the Ukrainian government.
Donetsk permanent envoy Denis Pushilin announced Monday evening he will not attend the December 9th talks.
The Ukrainians have accused Russia of driving all aspects on the civil war including providing troops and supplies. According to the news article this report is based on three top rebel commanders were removed from their posts at the behest of Russian General Sergei Surovikin, said to be part of the Russian Army general staff (STAVKA).
Two of the commanders, FSB Colonel Igor Girkin, identified as Strelkov, and Cossack Ataman Nikolay Kozitsin, were said to have become "too independence minded" when it came to their respective roles in the war in southeastern Ukraine.
Col. Girkin has a long history of involvement in the smaller republics in southern Russia including in Chechnya and South Ossetia, and now in southeastern Ukraine.
Girkin maintains a tremendous respect among Russians and non Russians alike for his actions in the early part of the war when he conducted a retreat under heavy artillery fire from Slovyiask toward Lugansk and Donetsk, and is said to have been the architect of the defeat of the Ukrainian army, which ended in Ilovaisk and cost the Ukrainians, it is reported, as many as 10,000 effectives dead.
Girkin was removed in early August.
Ataman Nikolay Kozitsin commanded his forces in the northern line of contact in Lugansk, and like Girkin, was a very poplar military leader. Kozitsin's exit came about around the time only weeks ago, that Cossack units were fighting with Lugansk rebels because the rebels were beginning to trade with the Ukrainian government, and were making plans to settle their part of the conflict.
GRU Colonel Igor Bezler, their third rebel commander said to have been removed for his pro independence views, was apparently sent to Poltava, Ukraine to serve as a guerrilla commander. Bezler, like Girkin, has a long history of working with the Russian military in their activities in the smaller republics including in Chechnya and South Ossetia. He has been accused, and videos have surface purporting Bezler executing civilians by firing squad.
A blogger at kont.ws blogger center said Sunday that meetings between Putin and French president Francois Hollande weren't about the French refusal to begin delivery of troop transport ships France had been building, but were about seeking a compromise in Ukraine.
According to the inidentified writer the settlement for Russia's part would be similar to the settlement for South Ossetia in 2008:
1) Russian would completely withdraw its troops from Ukraine and would promise no more interference in Ukrainian affairs.
2) The west would end sanctions against Russia
3) Poroshenko and the Maidan political movement would cease their anti Russian activity in Ukraine, along with their rhetoric.
According to the posting, the third item was not imposed on Georgia at the time, but the anti Russian rhetoric was tempered sufficiently to satisfy the third requirement.
All of those items fails to address the issue of Crimea, which Russian annexed last spring, after military action and an election. The Ukrainians could gum up the works by demanding linkage of the issue of Crimea with a settlement in southeastern Ukraine.
Russia has long claimed much of its actions in Crimea were based on hostile anti-Russian actions on the part of the nascent Maidan government in Kiev, and the fact that Russian needed to maintain its Black Sea fleet.
Chris Covert writes about foreign military issues for Rantburg.com. He can be reached at grurkka@gmail.com. You can read past articles about the 2014 war in southeastern Ukraina by clicking here.
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