Peace talks in Ukraine stall again
2014-12-15
Posted by: badanov
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By Chris Covert
Rantburg.com
Peace talks on the civil war in southeastern Ukraine have been delayed for the third time as both sides in the conflict continue to fight, according to Russian language news accounts.
Talks were originally scheduled to begin December 9th, then December 12th, and December 15th, but have been delayed once again and, if they begin, the earliest talks will be held December 19th.
According to a news report posted on korrespondent.net, the head of the Donetsk negotiating team, Denis Pushilin said that negotiations, the latest round of which were scheduled to begin December 15th must begin before the end of the year.
Two of the four points in the original ceasefire agreement have continued from the very start: prisoner exchanges and the ceasefire. Friday, a total of 800 prisoners are expected to be exchanged over the next few days. Several prisoner exchanges have been conducted between the rebels and the Ukrainian military since September 5th.
One of the sticking points on negotiations between the Ukrainian government and the independent republics of Donetsk and Lugansk is the "economic blockade" imposed by the Ukrainians last month, one element of which is the cutoff of all pensioners in Donetsk, forcing the new government in Donetsk to cover those payments. In an interview with a German television station last month, Russian president Vladimir Putin expressed astonishment the Ukrainians would consider such a measure, pointing out that during the second Chechen war his government continued to cover pension payments.
Another is the withdrawal by the Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada legislature of legislation conferring on both breakaway republics a special status similar to autonomy. Donetsk officials now want to negotiate those items before they will return to the peace talks. The original law was passed just after the September 5th ceasefire, but it was to last only three years, and officials in both Donetsk and Lugansk claimed they were not consulted when the original agreement was signed.
Meanwhile, in rebel held territories the ceasefire held for a day and a half before some limited artillery and small arms fire were exchanged.
At the Donetsk airport, Ukrainian and rebel commanders agreed to a local ceasefire so food supplies and unarmed fillers/replacements can be sent to the Ukrainian special forces defending the terminal. The Donetsk region was the last to experience a "day of silence" as part of the ceasefire requirement imposed on both sides, but it was short lived.
For example, several units belonging to the rebels' "Somalia" and "Motorola" battalions were seen on a road march last Thursday, headed towards positions east of the Sea of Azov port city of Mariupol. It is unclear in rebel reports just how large a force had been gathered, but it comprised rebel armor, antiaircraft and armored infantry units, and more importantly, it got the attention of Ukrainian media.
The last time such a force was deployed that far south was only days before the Minsk September 5th ceasefire, when rebel forces were being redeployed after the successful conclusion of the Ilovaisk battle which destroyed, according to rebel accounts, almost 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers.
Activity in the Mariupol region has spiked in the past week, with Ukrainian military units pushing their lines further east of Mariupol and local militia groups firing mortars on Ukrainian units attempting to dig in near rebel positions.
The "motive" for the redeployment -- as Russian military blogger Boris Rozhin characterized it -- is unclear, except that back in September, Mariupol was used by the Ukrainian military as a marshaling and rest and refit center for their forces burned out in combat further east.
The redeployment also strips the main focus of fighting in Donetsk since the September 5th ceasefire away from the airport, which the Ukrainians continue to hold. A reported large number of rebel effectives have been killed by artillery fire and in repeated assaults attempting to take the new terminal, the last stronghold held by the Ukrainians.
Before last Thursday, fighting erupted between rebel forces holding Gorlovka, northeast of Donetsk city and Ukrainian forces deployed to the north and west. The main issue was a rebel attempt to open up a road covered by artillery fire, and the Ukrainian response.
Thursday, it was reported that both sides stopped all but scattered exchanges of small arms fire. The rebels claim the Ukrainians are using BM-27 rocket artillery systems, 240mm rockets which are capable of firing submunitions. So far no firm video or pictorial evidence has emerged of those charges.
In Donetsk city itself, small arms fire exchanges have taken place between rebel forces and Ukrainian forces in the Leninsky district and in the Ukrainian held suburb of Peski.
Lugansk
Lugansk forces have made much of their activity in recent days as rebel forces withdrew their heavy artillery from the front line.
According to the pro Russian Voice of Sevastopol, fighting along the Northern Donetsk River centered around Schastye erupted on the morning of December 12th as rebel and Ukrainian forces exchanged gunfire. According to the rebels' report, Ukrainian forces attempted to redeploy towed 122mm artillery and a 122mm rocket artillery unit back into Schastye in violation of the ceasefire, three guns/launchers of which were destroyed by rebel SPG fire.
Like the Ukrainians, rebels have figured out how to mount a 73mm recoilless rifle to an artillery mount and use it for artillery fire, which is perfectly legal under the terms of the ceasefire.
Fighting was also recorded on highway 1303 as rebel forces fired on Ukrainian checkpoints along the road.
Chris Covert writes about foreign military issues for Rantburg.com. He can be reached at grurkka@gmail.com. You can read past articles about the 2014 war in southeastern Ukraina by clicking here.
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