No further talks on Ukraine scheduled
2014-12-31
Posted by: badanov
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By Chris Covert
Rantburg.com
Two days ago the president of the newly formed Lugansk republic stated that it is his intention to negotiate only a merger with the Russian Federation, according to Russian language news accounts.
The statement was the first time that Igor Plotnitskiy has said that a return to Ukrainian jurisdiction would not be on the table. Plotnitskiy also said that he is "ready to negotiate".
The day the talks among the Tripartite Contact Group ended, participants including Ukrainian president Piotr Poroshenko, Germany's Angela Merkel and French president Francois Hollande, held via Skype conference call, the only issue resolved was the prisoner exchange between Ukrainian armed forces and rebel forces. Two other issues were on the table as well, including a "completion" of the Minsk ceasefire agreement and a law granting special status for southeastern Ukraine.
But since the end of the talks, no information was released if the remaining issues on the agenda were even discussed.
For months, discussion in rebel media concerned if the two republics, Donetsk and Lugansk would accept autonomy from Ukraine, incorporation into the Russian federation, or independence. Since much of the rebel military leadership are former Russian security or military intelligence officials, it followed that such an investment from Russia would rule out independence.
Plotnitskiy's statement seems to cast the final putative result in stone, inasmuch as the president of Donetsk, Aleksadr Zakharachenko has said very little recorded by Russian language media in the past few days concerning Plotnitskiy's position, or the position of his own republic.
Plotnitskiy's statement does place the political leadership of both republics in a bind, since a large number of the rank and file fighting the Ukrainian Army want independence, or at least freedom from the newly imposed requirements from Kiev that Ukrainian language only be spoken. If incorporation into the Russian federation was always the goal, both republics may wind up with worse problems than they resolve.
Fighting Continues
Fighting in Donetsk has continued in two main areas, Donetsk city and Gorlovka, which is about 40 kilometers northeast of Donetsk city. The artillery fire in Donetsk, a daily occurrence just a few weeks ago, had tapered off until just three days ago when Ukrainian and rebel artillery and counterbattery fire started up again.
According to rebel media, Ukrainian artillery units hit several sectors of the city on Sunday, including in Avdeyevka and Grigoryevka, and in Kievskiy district.
Shelling was also reported, this time from rebel artillery, in the vicinity of the new airport terminal, where Ukrainian army units are holed up and at the weather station. Artillery and small arms fire were exchanged between rebel forces and Ukrainian army units in Peski, which is a Ukrainian marshaling area.
A rebel media graphic showed the equivalent of a tank battalion and a rocket artillery brigade being deployed to positions north of Donetsk city Sunday.
On Monday rebel media said that Ukrainian artillery fire hit locations in and near Donetsk city including at Sparta, which is adjacent to the airport, and in Kuibyshevsky district and the "Volvo Center". Additional small arms and tank gunfire were around Peski.
Rebel media also reported fighting near Maiyorsk and Shumy, near Gorlovka Sunday, using automatic grenade launchers and rocket artillery. The issue in Gorlovka has been repeated rebel attempts to push Ukrainian army units away from the nearby town of Dzerzhinsk towards the northwest.
Also on Monday, rebel media said Ukrainian Army units fired on rebel units in Gorlovka.
Starting on the night of December 29th to December 30th, according to rebel media, Ukrainian artillery units at Donetsk had fired what rebels characterized as "preparatory bombardment", presumably in advance of an attack,, but no attack materialized.
Fighting in Lugansk
Fighting continued Sunday in the vicinity of Lopaskino and Lobachovo, which is near Slavyanoserbsk, a rebel held town on the right bank of the North Donetsk River, which the rebels are using as a base for a bridgehead. According to rebel media, rebel units attempted a spoiling attack on Stary Aydar, which is east of Lopaskino and Lobachovo, but were met with rebel mortar fire. Rebels claim their counterfire destroyed two Ukrainian mortars.
Rebel media said that Ukrainian forces attacked their positions near Stanitsa Luganskaya, albeit with no losses.
On Monday, little was reported in Lugansk.
Rebel troop Movements and Concentrations
According to a post in the pro Ukrainian Informnapalm.org by Ukrainian military analysts Artem Vasylenko and Roman Burko, about 95 Russian vehicles entered Ukraine "from Izvaryne border crossing" and began a road march into Lugansk. The assumption here is that that equipment is heading towards the Ukrainian Army held area of Schastye, long an issue for rebels in the region.
In another area of Krasnyi Luch, which is on the Donetsk and Luganks border, a rebel tank brigade is deployed totaling 100 tanks. The analyst think that rebel forces are preparing an offensive using forces accumulated in Gorklovka, and Krasnii Luch towards Debaltsevo and Artemivsk.
Chris Covert writes about foreign military issues for Rantburg.com. He can be reached at grurkka@gmail.com. You can read past articles about the 2014 war in southeastern Ukraina by clicking here.
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