Rebel say Ukrainians massing forces for attack
2015-05-25
Posted by: badanov
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By Chris Covert
Rantburg.com
Russian backed rebels in Donetsk said Sunday that Ukraine has massed a force on their western front amounting to 45,000 effectives and almost 400 tanks, according to Russian language news accounts.
Donetsk Defense Ministry spokesman Lt. Colonel Eduard Basurin said in remarks at a press conference that his intelligence staff have detected the presence of more than 60 battalion sized formations of several types, as well as 380 tanks, 1,800 armor vehicles and 980 artillery tubes and launchers.
The build up has been commented on by Basurin in previous news conferences, saying that around 60 percent of the strength of the Ukrainian Army deployed in southeastern Ukraine is preparing for offensive operations.
The total amounts to about six maneuver brigades and ten artillery brigades. Previous remarks are that the Ukrainians have begun to move their heavy rocket artillery units closer to the front and to key areas, such as Mariupol, western Donetsk city and Gorlovka.
Basurin also noted that the Ukrainians have amassed a "strike group" near the western Donetsk town of Volnovakha.
The number of reports of ceasefire violations by both sides have been increasing over the last few days. The last time reports of ceasefire violations reached this level was last April 13th, in Spartak, a western suburb of Donetsk city, where rebels charged that two Ukrainian rifle companies launched an intense attack on their positions.
Since that battle, the rebels have continually charged that Kiev is preparing for a new offensive with one of its objectives being the airport. Ukrainian forces were forced to abandon the airport last January, and despite furious counterattacks, have been unable to regain that position.
Rebel forces, on the other hand, attempted to exploit the counterattack with one of their own, taking extreme eastern areas of Peski. A subsequent attempt to drive Ukrainian forces from Avdievka, less than one kilometer away, ended with severe losses for the rebels.
Since those battles the front lines in those areas more or less stabilized, with the April attacks nearly driving rebels back east, according to Ukrainian claims, until a local rebel counterattack restored the situation.
According to another news report which appeared on the rusday.info news website, the Ukrainians are grouping their forces, and once that grouping is complete, probes will begin as a prelude to a general offensive.
So far, rebel media has been very quiet on reporting news of artillery strikes and direct fire fights. It should be noted that the last time the rebels were this quiet was just prior to the operation to take the Donetsk airport in January.
The only rebel report available as of this writing was one of a vehicle carrying three Russian military officers, including Colonel General Alexander Lentsov, which was fired on by an unknown force using small arms near the front line somewhere south of Ukrainian held Artemovsk. The officers are three of several officers, including Ukrainians deployed at Soledar, near Artemovsk, who are assigned as observers for the ceasefire.
The vehicle the officers were riding was damaged, but no one was reported hurt in the incident.
One of the reasons why rebel media has been so quiet could be the artillery strike on Avdievka last Friday.
According to a news account on vest-ukr.com, rebel heavy artillery hit the coke plant and power transmission plants in Avdievka, shutting ther city's power off for a time. According to the article, a total of 47 shells hit Avdievka.
The Ukrainians claim the artillery came from rebel held territory. No one was reported hurt in the incident.
Ukrainian military analyst Dmitri Tymchuk said that rebel 122mm artillery and 120mm and 82mm mortars also hit the nearby towns of Opytnoye, Vodyane, Spartak and Peski. He also said three rebel tanks and three rebel AFVs left their fortifications between Opytnoye Avdievka to fire on Ukrainian troops in Avdievka.
Meanwhile in Shirokino, Ukrainian forces say that rebel forces have been shelling parts of Shirokino using 122mm towed artillery, anti tank guided missiles (ATGMs), mortars and automatic grenades launchers. Only a week ago rebels said the Ukrainian tanks were used on their positions as artillery, in violation of the ceasefire.
Lugansk
Dymchuk said that rebel recon groups were spotted near Schastye and Stantsa Luganskaya attempting to probe Ukrainian positions, and directing artillery and small arms fire on Ukrainian positions.
Chris Covert writes about foreign military issues for Rantburg.com. He can be reached at grurkka@gmail.com and on Twitter. You can read past articles about the 2014 war in southeastern Ukraina by clicking here.
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