Ukrainian offensive could begin Friday subject logo: DONBASWAR
2015-06-17
Posted by: badanov

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By Chris Covert
Rantburg.com

The Ukrainian Army is expected to start offensive operations by Friday, say rebel political and military leaders.

According to several reports which appear on rebel media websites and on social media, although the total number of ceasefire violations has been reduced by about 25 percent, the totals are much higher than they have been since last fall, just before the first ceasefire, known as Minsk I.

Donetsk president Aleksandr Zakharcheko said in a published interview that his intelligence services expect a Ukrainian offensive to begin soon, and to follow much the same pattern as the disastrous one in August, 2014.

In that August, 2014 offensive, Ukrainian forces attempted an envelopment operation from two directions. One side -- the southern pincer -- became bogged down and then surrounded by rebel counterattacks near Ilovaisk, which is southeast of Donetsk city.

The other pincer operation, near Debaltsevo, also was stopped by rebel counterattacks, and until February, 2015, formed the Debaltsevo salient. The Debaltsevo salient was eliminated by rebel forces in February at a high cost for both sides in men and materiel.

According to Zakharchenko, Ukrainian forces are expected to strike at the borders of Donetsk and Lugansk, at a point just south of Artemovsk. Artemovsk sits on Highway E40/M03, and is the gateway to Slavyansk, which rebel forces were forced to withdraw from early last summer. Artemovsk is also a logistical center for Ukrainian forces in the north region held by the rebels.

"We know about it," claimed Zakharchenko.

A secondary operation is expected to begin around Volnovakha in western Donetsk halfway between Donetsk and Mariupol, which is on the coast of the Sea of Azov.

Donetsk ministry of defense spokesman, Eduard Basurin said in a press briefing on Tuesday that rebel intelligence services have found nine self propelled artillery vehicles in various locations, including two near Gorlovka, two near Artemovsk and one near Verhnetoretskoe. Regnum.ru said some of the self propelled artillery were heavy 2S5 152mm vehicles. BM-21 122mm rocket artillery vehicles were spotted near Novoalekseevka and Avdievka, apparently fueling rebel speculations about Ukrainian plans.

Ukrainian sources say rebels have been firing artillery on Ukrainian positions including at Shirokino and at Marinka, where 120mm mortar fire was directed against Ukrainian forces.

Rebel forces used small arms and crew served weapons against Ukrainian forces at Opytnoye and Peski, both of which are near western Donetsk city, as well as at Marinka.

A separate report at Shirokino said that rebels used 122mm artillery against Ukrainian forces as well as 120mm mortar fire.

Rebel media said that Ukrainian artillery fire hit targets in western Donetsk city a total of 75 times at Oktyabrskiy and Petrovskiy districts, and at the Donetsk airport Tuesday after a quiet Monday night to Tuesday morning.

Rebel media also said that Ukrainian artillery struck the city hall at Gorlovka Monday night, setting it and a residence afire.

Chris Covert writes about foreign military issues for Rantburg.com. He can be reached at grurkka@gmail.com and on Twitter. You can read past articles about the 2014 war in southeastern Ukraina by clicking here.

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