Talks over further demilitarization in Ukraine fail
2015-08-04
Posted by: badanov
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By Chris Covert
Rantburg.com
Despite the rebels' claim to have removed heavy weapons under 100mm from the line of contact unilaterally, hopes for an agreement from the Ukrainian to do the same have failed, according to Russian language news accounts.
Donetsk rebels' chief negotiator, Denis Pushilin charged the Ukrainian side with "derailing" an enabling agreement for the withdrawal of heavy weapons of less than 100mm, according to a news account in regnum.ru. Parts of the peace negotiations involve separate working subgroups meeting in Minsk, but as of Monday night, those meetings were adjourned without reaching an agreement.
The Donetsk rebel political and military leadership must be getting nervous. Despite offers of conciliation in withdrawing military equipment from the line of contact, as well one high profile retreat from Shirokino earlier in July, Ukrainian military leadership have instead been moving heavy artillery closer to the line, according to rebel media.
A news account in Rossiyskaya Gazeta Saturday said that Donetsk military intelligence have spotted 26 Ukrainian self propelled artillery pieces, including artillery rocket launchers within 13 kilometers of the line of contact. Additionally, representatives with the Donetsk ministry of defense have been saying for ten days the Ukrainian are using 203mm howitzers against rebel forces.
The Rossiyskaya Gazeta news account said the rebel leaders fear a possible renewal of hostilities by the Ukrainian, a oft repeated and common charge by the rebels, as well as by the Ukrainians against the rebels.
The Rossiyskaya Gazeta goes on to note the suspicion, commonly held among rebel political and military leadership, that the Ukrainians may be using the Minsk peace process as a means of lulling the rebel leadership into complacency just in preparation for a general offensive. The pattern for this behavior by the Ukrainians is what the Russians call the Croatian Scenario.
A commentary by a partially identified writer who calls himself Saker who claims to be an American military analyst, posted on russia-insider.net website saying that the Ukrainians are pinning their hopes on the Croation Scenario whereby a peace agreement is negotiated, both sides are disarmed, but only one side receives NATO military aid, thus forcing the other side to surrender or face an attack, this time with NATO support.
The writer said that this time, Russia would not permit such a scenario. As matter stand now -- in this writer's opinion -- neither side are in any condition for a general mobile offensive, and whatever offensive actions that could take place-- and have taken place -- since the implementation of Minsk II in February have been small scale and local.
Fighting in Donetsk
Rebel forces have fired on Ukrainian forces in Donetsk a total of 46 times since Monday, according to a news account in tsensor.net.
Rebel artillery hit Ukrainian targets in Avdievka using 120mm mortars, and 152mm artillery positioned in Spartak in western Donetsk city. Rebel 120mm mortar and 122mm artillery fire hit targets near Mariupol, and at Starognatovkie. Rebel 120mm mortars and heavy weapons also were fired on Ukrainian positions at Peski, which is adjacent to Avdievka, and Opytnoye. Most of that artillery came from the Donetsk airport area, likely also from Spartak.
A separate report in tsensor,net quoted Ukrainian Army spokesman Colonel Andrei Lysenko as saying rebel forces fired on Ukrainian forces a total of 99 times on Sunday.
According to Donetsk official reports, Ukrainian forces have fired on rebel forces close to 80 times since Sunday. Weapons used on those attacks include 122mm and 152mm artillery, tank gunfire (125mm), and 82mm and 120mm mortar fire.
Locations rebel media say Ukrainian artillery targets include Donetsk city Kuybyshevskiy and Oktyabyskiy districts, the Donetsk airport and Spartak. Ukrainian artillery used on those attacks were sited at Avdievka and Opytnoye, according to official reports.
Gorlovka, having been fired on by Ukrainian artillery for nearly a week, escaped being targeted Saturday night. Local authorities have imposed a curfew on the city due to recent attacks. No reports from rebel media indicates any artillery attacks have been launched on the city.
Chris Covert writes about foreign military issues for Rantburg.com. He can be reached at grurkka@gmail.com and on Twitter. You can read past articles about the 2014 war in southeastern Ukraina by clicking here.
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