Ukraine planning a massive offensive
2015-08-21
Posted by: badanov
For a map, click here. You can enlarge the map, if you open it separately.
You can read the author's opinions here and here on whether Ukraine can even pull off a modern offensive: Spoiler: They can't.
By Chris Covert
Rantburg.com
The Ukrainian general staff are planning a massive offensive that will surround Donetsk city, separating it from the Russian border and its sister republic in the east, Lugansk, according to Russian language news accounts.
Lt. Colonel Eduard Basurin, spokesman for the Donetsk ministry of defense said on Thursday that rebel military officials received Ukrainian plans for the attack from Ukrainian officers at the Ukrainian general staff. He did not disclose who passed the data to rebel forces.
According to the data supplied at the Donetsk ministry of defense website, the new Ukrainian offensive is to be similar to the failed August, 2014 offensive. The Ukrainians then attempted an encirclement of Donetsk, only to become bogged down in rebel counterattacks in Ilovaisk and Debaltsevo, and eventually losing as many as 1,000 dead in the ensuing encirclement.
The rebel Ilovaisk defensive operation, which took three weeks to complete, has since become emblematic of the problems the Ukrainian military face in deploying troops against Ukrainian rebels and Russians in the two breakaway republics in large scale offensive operations.
One of the charges against one Ukrainian military battalion was that once the southern pincer battalion, a private volunteer unit, retreated back to its base in Mariupol, ending any hope the surrounded troops had of a breakout.
According to rebel officials, the Ukrainians have a total of 90,000 troops, 450 tanks, 2,500 armored personnel carriers and 230 BM-21 rocket artillery launchers in the southeastern Ukraine. Of those troops, 57,500 are slated for the offensive, along with 310 tanks and 200 BM-21s.
The offensive is in four thrusts. The northernmost, identified in documents as "Group S", consisting of five mechanized brigades, one tank brigade and three artillery brigades, is assigned to sweep southeastward through the border areas between Donetsk and Lugansk to the Russian border at Usenka.
The southernmost thrust, identified as "Group M", consisting of five mechanized brigades, two tank brigades and one artillery brigade, is assigned to head straight east, blowing past Volnovakha-Telmanovo region east to link up with "Group S" at Usenka. This operation along with Group S is set to be the outer ring of the encirclement of Donetsk city.
Two other thrusts by the Ukrainian forces, one north and one south, consisting of five mechanized brigades, one tank brigade and three artillery brigades, are to sweep immediately north and south of Donetsk city, eventually meeting at Ilovaisk. This operation is set to be the inner ring of the encirclement.
The offensive, the most ambitious ever taken by the Ukrainians is modeled on the old Soviet Operation Uranus that captured the besieged city of Stalingrad in late 1942. In that operation the Red Army spent weeks building up forces in four distinct areas to encircle the city, concluding on November 26th with an outer ring and an inner ring. In every treatment of the subject, both sides knew what was coming because that amount of troops available to the Soviets was difficult to hide. Despite the repeated warnings by German and Romanian troops both inside and outside the Stalingrad area of operation, as well as from staff generals on the German general staff, the German general staff did very little to prepare for a counterattack once the Soviet attack started. Eventually, the only German mobile forces not tied down in fighting before or during the counteroffensive was a single weakened tank corps, which wound up being easily destroyed in the Soviet offensive.
As this writer has said repeatedly on the subject, such massive sweeping movements leave huge gaps which must be covered by mobile patrols or by the air. Also, in a general offensive artillery has a special role in initially breaking any enemy line, keeping reinforcing troops at bay, and preventing counterattacks before they begin. In modern fighting, ammunition and fuel resupply are a critical factor, since both can be consumed in very short order, especially critical if the offensive forces expects to fight round the clock.
Lt. Colonel Basurin remarked that such a blitzkrieg style of warfare ended up with Ilovaisk, which killed a huge number of Ukrainian soldiers.
Fighting in Donetsk
According to data supplied by the Donetsk ministry of defense, Ukrainian artillery hit rebel positions in Donetsk city including the Petrovsky district, the Donetsk airport and at Spartak.
Near Telmanovo, Ukrainian artillery hit rebel positions at Belokamenka.
Ukrainian media said that rebel artillery struck Ukrainian positions at Krasnogorovka and at Opytnoye. Rebel troops fired small arms and crew served weapons at Avdievka, Peski and at Marinka. Rebel artillery struck Ukrainian positions at Starognatovka, near Mariupol.
Chris Covert writes about foreign military issues for Rantburg.com. He can be reached at grurkka@gmail.com and on Twitter. You can read past articles about the 2014 war in southeastern Ukraina by clicking here.
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