Mar 2nd: Chinese news agency reports the PLA has information that Taiwan has secured a deal with the Taiwanese government to provide assistance with nuclear weapons. Chinese government sources regard this information as ”alarming.”
The US Government denies the existence of any such plans.

Mar 5th: The PLAAF (Chinese Air Force ) and PLAN (Chinese Navy ) reports it is activating several coastal naval aviation units, including bombers. A mass movement of aircraft is expected from the interior of the mainland to base on the coast nearest to Taiwan. PLAAF and PLAN spokesmen assures reporters this massive deployment of air power is defensive in nature. Additionally, the PLAN announces ships are putting to sea in large numbers as defensive measure.
The NY Times reports unidentified sources within the Pentagon that at least three carrier battle groups are steaming towards Taiwan and are expected to be on station to monitor Chinese naval activity within four to ten days.

Mar 6th: A junior senator from a northeastern state says in a morning news talk show that her view is that Taiwan must be united with China and if she decides to run that will be a plank on her platform for the 2008 presidential election. Later that day a number of other senators hold a press conference stating their support for a united China.
The Pentagon confirms that ”some” naval groups are heading to Taiwan to monitor increased Chinese naval and air force movements.

Mar 8th: The PLAN announces a ”pre-blockade deployment of naval vessels” near Taiwan's two main sea ports. The spokeswoman says the deployment is only to monitor Taiwanese shipping movements. Four groups in all, each with four ships: One destroyer, one missile frigate, one missile boat and one ELINT ship. Within hours the ships are on station.
The Pentagon announces an additional carrier battle group is steaming towards Taiwan, ETA: 3 days.
Seaman are reporting the PLAN naval groups are signaling them to stop voluntarily to be searched if they have banned materials. The seamen also report sightings of several; unidentified submarines following commercial shipping. No ships are stopped, but traffic has slowed, according to news reports.

A White House spokesman says that it views the extra naval and air activities as ”troubling”, and he reveals that the president regards this ”pre-blockade|” naval movement is as close to an act of war as ever has been from the Chinese government. A Chinese embassy official dismisses the White House statement as “war-mongering” and ”fear mongering” reiterating PLAN only wants to monitor commercial shipping in and out of Taiwan for materials which cab be used against the Chinese mainland.
The spokeswoman adds that recent US naval movements are also ”troubling” She adds that the United States should be careful. The spokeswoman does not elaborate. That same evening the same junior senator criticizes the recent US Naval deployment as “typical gunboat diplomacy in a time we need a real diplomat in charge.”

Mar 9th: An ABC special report states that a large group of airborne soldiers have been placed on alert for rapid deployment. Speculation is at least a brigade is preparing to deploy. Pentagon and White House officials refuse comment.
PLA officials announce in Beijing that they are also rapidly deploying naval and airborne troops to the Eastern Fleet bases, all by air. The PLAAF also announces a step up on air monitoring activity using aircraft. Reporters in Taiwan say they are watching one aircraft per quarter hour, 'round the clock. entering Taiwanese air space.
Seamen putting to port report constant harassment by Chinese air and naval forces of commercial ships in the form of demands to stop and be boarded, low altitude sonic speed buzzing by naval air aviation fighters and near collisions by missile boats with demands conveyed to heave to.

You are an American commander in charge of the four CVBGs. President Bush flies to Honolulu to meet with you before you go by air to your flagship. He looks you dead in the eye and says: ”Make 'em back down without starting a shooting war.”

What are your plans? And what do you think the Chinese are trying to do? In this base scenario, the junior senator, will play a role later on, but not in this case.


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