Ukrainian peace talks probably scrapped until 2015
2014-12-22
Posted by: badanov
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By Chris Covert
Rantburg.com
Preliminary peace talks collapsed Friday, and the latest round of talks between the Ukrainian government and the Russian backed rebels appear to be on hold until after the end of the year, according to Russian language news reports.
Both sides in the negotiations have their specific goals. The Ukrainians want the original Minsk Accord to be completed, the next step of which would be a complete disarmament of the rebels.
The rebels demand a restoration of pension payments to pensioners living in rebel controlled territory and a lifting of the "economic blockade" Kiev imposed just weeks ago before talks can even begin. And when they do begin, the only issue on the table for them will be autonomy for their two republics, Lugansk and Donetsk.
Just ten days ago the political leadership of Lugansk signaled to Kiev their desire to settle their part of the conflict, one of the signals being an apparent exchange of coal for cash payments by the Ukrainian government. That exchange enraged Cossack rebels who fought briefly with Lugansk supported rebels.
Now, according to a report which appeared in vesti-ukr.ru, Lugansk president Igor Plotininskiy publicly stated that he wants to reestablish economic ties with Ukraine, "but not with today's Ukraine", which he said glorifies Nazism.
Poltininsky's views mirror the view of Russian president Vladimir Putin, who said in a news conference last Thursday that the current government in Ukraine was the result of a military backed coup.
Meanwhile, the chief negotiator with the Donetsk breakaway republic, Deni Pushilin, said Saturday that all contacts with the counterparties have been stopped, and no talks are scheduled. A legislator for the Lugansk republic, Vladislav Deinov said that some issues raised by the rebels in Friday's video conference were to be discussed by the Ukrainians.
It is unclear in Ukrainian news reports if the talks were cancelled because of Kiev's refusal to discuss the issues of rebels raised, or if they really needed to time discuss those issues.
According to a separate report which appeared in regnum.ru, according to a press spokesman for the Donetsk republic national council, Claudia Kulbatsky, the Ukrainians have failed to cease firing, withdraw heavy weapons from some sectors and withdraw from the link of demarcation, all of which are required by the Minsk Ceasefire agreement. The rebels claim they have already complied with those terms in areas where the Ukrainians have.
As of Monday no date was set for further talks.
Fighting in the Don Basin
According to reports, fighting has been centered around four main areas: at Donetsk city near the airport, at Gorlovka, northwest of Donetsk city, at Debaltsevo, which is east of Gorlovka, and at Stanitsa Luganskaya.
Pro Ukrainian military writer Dimitri Tymchuk said in a Friday report that rebels have attacked positions in Peski near the airport, which the Ukrainianss had abandoned. Rebel reports, with data supplied by the pro rebel Voice of Sevastopol, said that Ukrainian military units fired mortars and small arms in the vicinity of Peski.
In Debaltsevo, Tymchuk said that rebel units had fired small arms in the area. Ukrainian military reported watching rebels move trucks, infantry fighting vehicles and three tanks near the area. Rebels reported Ukrainian counterbattery fire against rebel artillery in the area.
In Gorlovka, rebel media reported an intensive fight between their forces and Ukrainian military unit concentrated along the Gorlovka-Dzerzhinsk road, which the rebels attempted to open a week ago. The Ukrainians attempted to intervene in the fighting with a tank. Later, the fighting shifted to Maiorsk, halfway between Gorlovka and Dzerzhinsk.
According to Tymchuk, rebels attacked Ukrainian positions at Schastye and Stanitsa Luganskaya using small arms, mortars and grenades. Tymchuk claimed that some of the armor in the areas are being operated by Russian mercenaries. He said that the rebel commander in the area has an armor reserve of seven armor vehicles including three tanks.
Rebels claim that Ukrainian artillery hit surrounding localities near Stanitsa Luganskaya, such as Vesyolaya Gora, Prishib, Slavyanoserbsk, Valuiskoye, Nizhnetyoploye, Kolesnikovka and Olkhovoye, the targets of which presumably contained rebel units. Of those towns and localities, only Hizhnetyoploye was in what is considered Ukrainian territory. Rebels claimed the Ukrainians used self-propelled guns, howitzers, mortars and rocket artillery units in their attacks.
Ukrainian Army Rearming
Rebels have been reporting since last week that aircraft loaded with military equipment and trains full of armor fighting vehicles have been sent to northern and central Ukrainian cities of Zaparozhe, Dnepropetrovsk and Kharkov.
Military equipment described by the rebels being brought in by aircraft include UAVs, antitank systems and optics. Rebel say 32 flights of NATO cargo aircraft were observed at undisclosed points in Ukraine.
The Ukrainians also received by rail several infantry fighting vehicles -- presumably BMP-2s -- and other armor vehicles. The same report said armor vehicles and towed tube artillery were offloaded at the southern Ukrainian port of Odessa.
According to the report, at the current rate, by the start of the new year the Ukrainian Army could "restore its capability to levels last seen in July". At the moment, however, the Ukrainian army, despite near constant claims by rebel media, are in no condition for offensive operations against the rebels.
Chris Covert writes about foreign military issues for Rantburg.com. He can be reached at grurkka@gmail.com. You can read past articles about the 2014 war in southeastern Ukraina by clicking here.
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