Ukrainians, rebels build up forces for planned offensives
2015-04-03
Posted by: badanov
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By Chris Covert
Rantburg.com
The chief negotiator of the Lugansk republic said Thursday that Ukraine has violated the February 12th Minsk Ceasefire agreement by failing to withdraw a set of proposals that the Ukrainians claim will end the war in southeastern Ukraine, according to Russian language news accounts.
According to information supplied by TASS news agency, Vladislav Deinevo expressed his sentiment that a dialogue between the rebel governments would begin in earnest, and Ukrainians would yield "to the logic of the adopted document [ceasefire agreement] and cancel the documents contradicting the set of measures to implement the Minsk agreements."
Only a few days before, Ukrainian president Piotr Poroshenko hinted that a plebiscite was in discussion which would change Ukraine into a federation, permitting the two breakaway oblasts, Donetsk and Lugansk, to function within a Ukrainian federation as autonomous entities.
The Minsk ceasefire agreement said in its text that the Ukrainian parliament, the Verkhovna Rada would pass a set of laws that would offer autonomy to Lugansk and Donetsk in exchange for the rebels and commanders disarming, ending this now nine months-long war.
An actual proposal was passed earlier this month, but it only allowed elections after rebels disarmed and after the Ukrainian security structure was put back in place, a virtual surrender by the rebels to the Ukrainians.
As matters now stand, both sides are expecting more war throughout the spring and the summer, likely to happen as the ground thaws, then dries from spring rains.
Artillery and gun fire exchanges continue between the Ukrainian and the rebels in several key areas. The rebels continue to claim that their forces, despite being hit by Ukrainian artillery and direct artillery fire, have been under strict orders not to respond, while the Ukrainians continue to claim the rebels are initiating battles along the line of contact.
The most intense firefights recently have taken place in Donetsk city where Ukrainians claim rebel forces continue to fire on their forces in Peski, Avdievka and Opytnoye. All three locations are known to be localities where Ukrainian previously had sited their artillery, but since the Ceasefire went into effect, Ukrainians have claimed they withdrew their heavy weapons.
Rebel media, formal and unofficial, have been reporting over the past several days that they have begun using light unarmed drones acquired from Russia -- they say via private donations -- mainly quatrocopters to spy on and log Ukrainian military activity and deployments.
Thursday, the spokesman for the Donetsk republic ministry of defense, Lt. Colonel Eduard Basurin, said in a press conference that the Ukrainians have failed to abide by the agreement which requires heavy weapons to be withdrawn 20 kilometers from the line of contact.
According to information supplied by regnum.ru, heavy weapons have been spotted at various locations at, near or across the ceasefire line.
In his remarks, Basurin said that rebel intelligence believes that the Ukrainians are planning provocations which they say will lead to the introduction of peacekeepers, something the rebels have been studiously trying to avoid.
According to Basurin, Ukrainians violated the ceasefire 190 times since March 26th, 90 of them in the previous 24 hours. It has been the contention of rebel leaders the Ukrainian forces have repeatedly moved heavy weapons into contact with rebel forces, only to rapidly move them back out before their presence can be reported by non government organizations such as the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), the main body monitoring the ceasefires since last August.
Basurin said Ukrainian heavy weapons spotted included:
One BM-21 122mm rocket artillery launcher vehicle belonging to the Ukrainian 28th Mechanized Brigade at Kurakhovo,13 kilometers west of Donetsk and 12 kilometers from the line of contact
Three BM-21 122mm rocket artillery launcher vehicles, also belonging to the Ukrainian 28th Mechanized Brigade, were spotted three kilometers north of Kalinovo and 20 kilometers from the line of contact.
Ten D30 122mm howitzers were spotted in the forest near Novomarkovo, 68 kilometers north of Donetsk and 32 km from the line of contact. Four T-64 tanks and one BM-27 Urugan multiple rocket artillery launcher vehicle were spotted in the same area
Four tanks and four self propelled 2S9 Nona 120mm mortar were spotted near Krasnogorovka, which is 13 kilometers west of Donetsk and 10 kilometers from the line of contact.
Two BM-21 122mm rocket artillery launcher vehicles were spotted near the police checkpoint in Bogatyr village, which is 57 kilometers west of Donetsk.
Ten T-64 tanks, four Acacia 152mm self-propelled howitzers, one MSTA-S 152mm self-propelled howitzer and one BM-21 122mm rocket artillery launcher vehicle were spotted 25 kilometers from the line of contact near the settlements of Grodovka and Mykolaivka, which are 35 kilometers and 26 kilometers northwest of Donetsk, respectively.
Four Acacia 152mm self-propelled howitzers and two 9K37 Buk antiaircraft missile launchers were spotted two kilometers west of Grodovki.
A total of 60 effectives, said by the rebels to be "foreign mercenaries of European appearance" and three BM-27 Urugan multiple rocket artillery launcher vehicles were spotted at the train station at Roya, which is 29 kilometers west of Donetsk.
Rebel attacks near Donetsk
According to Dmitri Tymchuck, rebel forces have been hitting Ukrainian positions in Peski and Advievka using heavy weapons.
Avdievka has been hit using 122mm tube artillery, while rebel BMP-2s have been hitting Ukrainian troops using the BMP-2 main gun, a 30mm autocannon.
Rebels also have been hitting Ukrainian forces at Opytnoye using 120mm mortars.
Rebel say their positions at the airport were hit with mortars and recoilless rifle fire from Avdievka and Opytnoye. Rebels also said that targets at the Donetsk city Volvo center were hit with mortars from Peski.
Artillery strikes in Mariupol
Tymchuk said that rebel mortar teams shelled the town of Pionerskoye using 120mm mortars after shifting fire numerous times. Rebel 120mm mortar and 122mm tube artillery fire were recorded at Ukrainian targets in western sectors of Shirokino, which Ukrainian units of the Azov Battalion have held for about a week.
Subsequent to the artillery preparation, rebel forces probed Ukrainian positions by fire using the small groups Tymchuk reported having been deployed there the day before.
Rebel media reported much the same, except that the Ukrainians launched several artillery missions against their troops in Shirokino.
Chris Covert writes about foreign military issues for Rantburg.com. He can be reached at grurkka@gmail.com. You can read past articles about the 2014 war in southeastern Ukraina by clicking here.
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