Rebels say Ukrainians prepare new offensive
2015-05-22
Posted by: badanov
By Chris Covert
Rantburg.com
The suspected start of a new summer offensive, said by Russian backed rebels to begin on Victory Day, May 9th, has come and gone with new indications that Ukrainian forces are preparing for a new offensive.
Propaganda by both sides has been increasing in intensity with the Ukrainian side being accused of bringing up closer to the contact line heavy artillery banned by the February 15th Ceasefire, and rebels being accused by violating the ceasefire numerous times.
The exchange of heavy gunfire since the end of the Debaltsevo defensive in late February has been concentrated in three regions in Donetsk and Lugansk, where forces concentrations for both sides have been the heaviest. Those regions include western Donetsk city, Shirokino and northern Lugansk.
Only two weeks ago Ukrainian president Piotr Poroshenko made a public vow to retake the Donetsk airport, a position his forces abandoned early in February, where rebel forces fought off numerous Ukrainian counterattacks.
Since then, rebels claim that Ukrainian artillery have been pounded their positions at Spartak, the airport itself and in the far western reaches of Donetsk city. Throughout this time the rebel claimed that despite their forces being hit by artillery, they have not responded by fire.
Ukrainian military analyst Dmitri Tymchuk said in a report published last May 20th that rebel forces have shelled Ukrainian positions at Avdievka, Opytnoye and at Vodyanoye. Advievka has long been a stronghold in the approaches to western Donetsk city, while Opytnoye has been a known location for Ukrainian artillery.
Tymchuk said that rebels have been using 82mm and 120mm mortar fire. He also said that rebels have been firing on Ukrainian positions using automatic grenade launchers and heavy machine guns at Pesky, Butovka mine and the Petrovsky district of Donetsk.
Tymchuk said that rebel forces in western Donetsk city have been reinforced with 44 tanks, 68 light armor vehicles, as well as 28 self-propelled guns, including eight 2S19 152mm "MSTA-S" self-propelled guns.
Rebels claim that Ukrainian artillery have been hitting targets near Gorlovka, specifically at Shumy and the Leninskoye from Dzherzinsk in the west, and from Kodema and Kurdyumovka in the north.
Shirokino
Despite a few attempts at a local ceasefire by rebel commanders, fighting and artillery exchanges continued in Shirokino, which is directly east of the Sea of Azov port of Mariupol.
According to rebel media, Ukrainian forces, namely the Azov Regiment have been hitting targets in Shirokino with artillery. According to a news item posted on reserve FSB Colonel Igor Strelkov's official website, an attack in the vicinity of Shirokino was fought off by rebel forces.
Tymchuk said the rebel 82mm mortars have been fired on Ukrainian positions. He also said that rebel forces in the region were recently reinforced with about 250 effectives, which he characterized as "mercenaries, which arrived from Russian and from rebel territory in the north."
Donetsk defense ministry spokesman Lt. Colonel Eduard Basurin said a few days ago that a number heavy rocket artillery forces, specifically BM-27 Urugan 220mm rocket artillery launchers were spotted by rebel special forces recon groups in Melitopol moving en convoy east towards the Mariupol defensive zone. In fact Col. Basurin has claimed over the past few days that Ukrainian forces have been amassing large artillery parks, which rebel commanders suspect could be used in future Ukrainian offensive operations.
Northern Lugansk
Last May 17th Ukrainian forces in Schastye captured two Russian GRU Spetsnaz soldiers, and eliminated an undisclosed number of others. Conflict on social media sites arose immediately after the detention of the two men as to whether they were Russian GRU Spetsnaz, or whether they were special forces in the employ of Lugansk. Documents posted online suggest the two were deployed by the Russian Federation, which is nothing unusual. Rebel officials have routinely requested the use of Russian special forces, colloquially known as "green men" to arrest or eliminate troublesome commanders, but also routine are Russian special forces working for rebel commanders.
One of the weapons seized in the aftermath was a short range VSS Vintorez 9x39mm sniper carbine used by Russian special and police forces. The weapon shown by the Ukrainians did not have a sniper scope, which would lend credence to the rebels' contention that the two men captured were not there at the behest of the Russian Federation ministry of defense.
The two soldiers captured were identified as Captain Eugene Vladimirovich Erofeev and Sergeant Alexander Alatolievich Alexandrov, who is identified as a contract soldier for the Russian Federation. Ukrainians have captured troops they claim are Russian troops deployed by the Russian federation, and have claimed that those soldiers are often stripped of Russian Federation military identification documents, lest their capture or death disclose something the Russians have long and repeatedly denied.
Tymchuk said that rebels continue to fire on Ukrainian forces in Schastye and Stanitsa Luganska using 122mm towed and 2S1 122mm self propelled artillery vehicles. The town of Stanitsa Luganska has been an issue since last winter as rebel fores pressed attacks in order to secure a bridgehead. Tymchuk said that those attacks are attempting to flank Ukrainian forces in and around Stanytsia Luganska, but have been stopped.
The Lugansk rebel government in its official news website released an interview with the commander of the 7th Territorial Defense Battalion, identified as Denis Moskalenko. His forces, deployed at the riverine town of Slavyanoserbsk, face Ukrainian forces including the Aidar Battalion and the Golden Gate police battalion.
Slavyanoserbsk has been in rebel hands since last winter, and apparently according to the story, is a static position for the rebels because, according to Moskalenko, Ukrainian forces are dug in, and are not preparing for offensive operations.
Last winter, it became apparent to rebel commanders that while the Ukrainians withdrew their heavy weapons including tanks, many of those forces are in positions that will enable their rapid reemployment.
A video report in the area suggests that Ukrainian forces are routinely firing on rebel positions using artillery and small arms fire. The government report said that Ukrainian forces routinely hit rebel troops using 82mm and 120mm mortars and tank guns.
Chris Covert writes about foreign military issues for Rantburg.com. He can be reached at grurkka@gmail.com and on Twitter. You can read past articles about the 2014 war in southeastern Ukraina by clicking here.
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